BARKSDALE AIR FORCE BASE, La. -- Air Force Global Strike Command presented the results of its Comprehensive Health Risk Assessments for its three active missile bases during a virtual town hall June 4, 2025.
The risk assessments, conducted by the U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine, are an assessment of the risk to human health, particularly the risk of cancer, caused by the presence of chemicals detected during the three rounds of environmental sampling conducted in 2023 and 2024.
The assessments determined a range of risk based on occupancy times a notional person might have spent in the Launch Control Centers, spanning from a minimum of eight years for up to a maximum of 70 years for 24 hours a day. The risks were slightly different at each of the three missile bases.
Samples collected from the environments where the missile community works indicate the risk of getting cancer is low, but it is not zero. The lifetime cancer risk for all Americans is approximately 39 percent according to American Cancer Society data.
The Comprehensive Health Risk Assessments for each base were:
- F.E. Warren AFB estimated an excess cancer risk between <1 and 11 incidences per 10,000 Missile Alert Facility personnel, for the 8-to-70-year range of occupancy times considered by the study. This correlates with a 0.0 to 0.11 percent increase in lifetime cancer risk.
- Malmstrom AFB estimated an excess cancer risk between <1 and 23 incidences per 10,000 MAF personnel, for the 8-to-70-year range of occupancy times considered by the study. This correlates with a 0.0 to 0.23 percent increase in lifetime cancer risk.
- Minot AFB estimated an excess cancer risk between <1 and 7 incidences per 10,000 MAF personnel for the 8-to-70-year range of occupancy times considered by the study. This correlates with a 0.0 to 0.07 percent increase in lifetime cancer risk.
“However, just because you may or may not be above the general population risk doesn’t mean there is no cancer risk,” said Gen. Thomas Bussiere, AFGSC commander. “I am example number one of that. My cancer was No. 2 on the top 20 list of cancers for aviators, but that doesn’t mean I was above the risk for the general population.”
This health risk assessment suggested the increased risk is from the presence of benzene, which was detected in trace amounts in a few of the LCCs. Other contaminants, including polychlorinated biphenyls detected on some surfaces in the LCCs, and chloroform, which has both natural and artificial sources, drove a smaller portion of the increased risk.
Although only PCBs were detected at levels above the Environmental Protection Agency’s standards for clean-up and remediation, the environmental sampling was sensitive enough to detect chemicals such as benzene and chloroform at levels well below standards for remediation. These values, as well as statistical extrapolations for LCCs where environmental sampling was unable to detect any contaminants, were used to calculate the risk assessments.
The assessments measured against federal limits and a statistically based exposure hazard quotient determined continued monitoring of the missile community is warranted. While the trace amounts of chloroform and benzene detected do not pose adverse health concerns, local bioenvironmental engineers will continue sampling efforts.
The CHRAs are a model of the estimated health risk, both cancer and non-cancer, based on sampling data. They do not directly measure cancer incidents or other health issues. The ongoing Epidemiological Review being conducted by the MCCS is examining the total population of the Air Force missile community who served between 1976 and 2010 and every incidence of cancer within that population reported to the Department of Defense or Veterans Affairs medical systems.
“The level of interest and oversight with the Department of the Air Force and Congress has not waned, and I’m very thankful and happy with the interest and actions on the part of the VA,” Bussiere said. “They’ve been great partners, and I anticipate they will continue to be great partners.”
The CHRAs and slides from the latest town hall can be found at the Missile Community Cancer Study website: https://www.airforcemedicine.af.mil/Resources/Missile-Community-Cancer-Study/